Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80acffd9c682c3c22d6f7e9ae4620fdf013d08eaab3360d8699616cf326d8150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 51c | 596.58$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.01 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 454.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 57c | 360.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.92 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 235.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…b76bbacked Yes | 50c | 212.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 51c | 197.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 165.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 163$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 55c | 157.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 137.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 46c | 129.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 121.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 39c | 101.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 63c | 96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 59c | 85.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 55c | 84.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 84.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 77.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 45c | 75.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 46c | 73.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 64.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 42c | 61.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 64c | 54.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 52.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 49.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 45.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 65c | 45.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 44.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 43.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 56c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 41.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 40.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 40.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 39.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 65c | 38.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 37.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 34.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 32.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 72c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 29.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 67c | 29.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 61c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.