Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843e99c14cab0bc5ecba47871ef53347e02bd9386614d8f1ffc65dab3aae9ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 568.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.31 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 511.75$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.23 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 505.44$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 376.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 77c | 261.16$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 241.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 39c | 236.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 221.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 37c | 175$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 19c | 173$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 63c | 168.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 164.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 150.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 64c | 136.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 61c | 132.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 32c | 129.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 124.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 114.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 105$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 100.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 99.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 39c | 82.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 76.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 52.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 38c | 50.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 49.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…47febacked No | 63c | 44.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 42.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 42.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 41.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 40c | 32.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…82bdbacked Yes | 36c | 30.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 38c | 29.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…22b5backed No | 70c | 28.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 59c | 18.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…69aabacked No | 79c | 13.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.