Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d3b10424cdaa08264ec65ba78853582601a5171fff27841a874825db87ec66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 13c | 7,558$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 3,244$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 22c | 3,180$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 781$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 719.51$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 712.42$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.64 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 592.94$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed No | 68c | 389.71$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 67c | 319.76$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 30c | 261.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 80c | 188.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 176.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 161.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Yes | 30c | 155.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 214 | 73.4%157 W · 57 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 76.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 32c | 66.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 60.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed No | 69c | 59.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-20?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.