Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45e86cc03f3998ab129d057b3509053cd17619bec88ad0e168d6c68046947758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,432 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.99 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 3,076$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.72 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 3,021$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.54 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,626$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 1,228$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.72 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed No | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 558.53$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 68c | 221.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Yes | 24c | 220.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 151.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 24c | 92.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 68c | 87.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 69c | 86.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 28c | 65.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…0fb0backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 31c | 64.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 60.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 72c | 60.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 51.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 32c | 44.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 108 | 54.6%59 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed No | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 69c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…a700backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5786…e309backed No | 68c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-20?Yes won
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.