Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562681394269cd4414d36e049f15616c4a3a6ccaab52cca3f83dddeafae8bc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,022 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 3,148$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.59 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 36c | 2,562$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 67c | 1,643$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 887.65$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.89 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 35c | 773$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.57 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 29c | 682.02$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 71c | 507.04$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 24c | 460.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 71c | 275.47$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 38c | 261.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Yes | 65c | 261.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 73c | 240.66$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 67c | 137.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…0923backed No | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 102.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 63c | 71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed No | 35c | 70.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 55c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 60.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 37c | 57.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fb…65d3backed Yes | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…6d15backed Yes | 38c | 38.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 37c | 36.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 45c | 33.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked No | 42c | 28.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 25.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…4609backed No | 61c | 22.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-03-20?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?No won
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-03-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.