Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80f7af0110fc5c82c5852addf0c8b6f5ba56a6e1e7e24fe500119e50eaf3dd61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 62c | 285.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed Yes | 64c | 279.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 36c | 247.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 233.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 178.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 40c | 171.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 53c | 117.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…c44fbacked Yes | 67c | 104.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 104.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 38c | 102$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 91.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 58c | 90.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 85.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 58c | 85.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 84.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 64c | 82.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 82.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 46c | 81.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 77.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 74.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 73.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 68.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 56.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 57c | 55.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 70c | 54.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 55c | 53.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 49c | 42.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…319dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 36.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 30.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…b84fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 70c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 65c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 55c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.