MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81027e1b247c75959ddc67cbc06199ebc082ff9d8c730920ce0db15654727a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 1,654$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 886.32$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 748.25$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.78 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 469.37$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 400$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 368$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 272.11$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 236.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 187.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 170.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 144$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 100.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc051…5fc3backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 30.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 30.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 30.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 28.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…668fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.