MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c12244ef304fc3a067f4aef63a7cb6ed84d07242654a56c8761db700f637cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 1,617$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.29 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 1,587$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 1,262$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 1,261$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.4 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 1,130$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 945.04$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 775.66$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.94 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 348.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 336.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 184.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 170.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 156.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 146$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 110.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 97.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 97.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 77.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 57.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 52.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 36.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 36.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…d851backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 24.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.