MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb50edb208678f03ff5cac513e1738a63741be067e07e728f0538e85b9fcc3e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 10,507$6,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,908.2 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 4c | 7,088$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Over | 33c | 4,537$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 36c | 2,963$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.23 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 9c | 1,550$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Under | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 1,161$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 14c | 1,132$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 14c | 1,102$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 794.75$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.52 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 13c | 759.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 12c | 750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 18c | 536.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 31c | 400$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 14c | 349.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Under | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 280$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 257.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 8c | 242.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 51c | 242.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 31c | 185$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 115.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 104.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 88.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 23.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.