Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x810aabaad42e010bebdf08bca4ffc7ea009c274bd99b094b5329b162e499dda3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 73c | 4,745$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.07 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 2,988$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 3c | 2,631$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,547$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,037$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 27c | 393.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 392.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 324.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 279.74$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 31c | 217.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…21e9backed No | 75c | 177.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 31c | 174.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 27c | 148.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 144.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 143.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 138.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 75c | 132.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 108.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 106.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 75c | 98.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 80.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 75c | 65.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 54.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…2b64backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabc7…2f88backed No | 75c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…a19dbacked No | 76c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.