Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd642c361f3ed7ddb6dc5c89e8ca349d227eca4ac39ca579d0642a8e331e62228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 19c | 3,162$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,850$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 1,428$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 2c | 1,315$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6f…b31bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,056$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +224.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 67c | 400.05$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 66c | 331.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 66c | 324.41$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 34c | 297.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 35c | 262.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 34c | 143$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 34c | 142.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 27c | 110.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 66c | 109.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 34c | 101$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…bfe0backed Yes | 34c | 98.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 16c | 92.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 33c | 70.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 33c | 56.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 67c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 67c | 26.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…a19dbacked No | 67c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.