TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes41c30,000$12,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,70011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed No59c20,001$11,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,800.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes41c15,000$6,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8503855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No57c13,465$7,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,628.81,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No52c12,004$6,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,276.343,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No29c8,567$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No41c6,588$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.2975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes42c6,030$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,497.171553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No59c3,900$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.095954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9754062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+98.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Yes44c2,284$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.863360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No46c2,123$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.382,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No58c1,800$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.959455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No4c1,756$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes41c1,673$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.4915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Yes42c1,667$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No52c1,424$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.33762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes44c1,295$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72515064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed Yes42c1,270$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.812646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes41c1,242$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.2133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No53c1,053$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.5919544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No17c1,044$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.289532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No60c994.96$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes44c955.01$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.011631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes41c919.51$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.513644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes41c743.9$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.821338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Yes42c642.64$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.731729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes42c633.71$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.553641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da0…2f48backed Yes42c623.81$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.813250%16 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No59c557.98$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.214252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes42c528.57$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5734547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes66c520.94$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.8913332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked No59c509$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.312850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c29…1478backed Yes44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802050%10 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked No60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x70b6…f2f2backed No60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.85851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No46c404.53$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…5480backed No59c399.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.992365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+80.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No35c399.62$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3516542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No57c399.55$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7410942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa33…63e6backed Yes42c390.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No5c370$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db7…5c06backed Yes41c365.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.852661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Yes42c360.05$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.053125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked No57c316.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.13650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1774938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Yes70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.711566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes41c263.41$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.412138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed No59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.59350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes41c245$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.552050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x340d…1335backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.93164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.93056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.91643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x040d…3527backed Yes42c238.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes43c230$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.115829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked No60c221.67$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd6…b378backed Yes61c215.13$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes69c203.75$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.168258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07ec…ba9fbacked Yes41c202.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Yes41c201.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.79062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x215b…3e6cbacked No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+176.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1184141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-76.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes45c193.36$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Yes73c188.1$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.433951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac3…d015backed Yes45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…ca8dbacked Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaa…f91dbacked Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked No16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12f7…ff1fbacked Yes42c120$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes42c117.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.364136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes70c97.19$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1911952.1%62 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5913…3bbebacked Yes42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.245356.6%30 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes41c93.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.453020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ef…c56bbacked Yes42c85.71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked No43c83.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes57c83.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8322669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e28…fe79backed Yes62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.653100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+300.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed Yes40c80.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.132231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+61.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.431323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No60c70.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.073868.4%26 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed Yes43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.773036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No58c67.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No56c66.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1633340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No29c59.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…79e1backed Yes42c59.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.253345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaed…f6a0backed Yes44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+61.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x90eb…68dfbacked Yes45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed No31c51.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162763%17 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3513139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9796…9032backed Yes45c48.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+115.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.786526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…93ecbacked Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.