Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x812e86053f833612b6ea9039130b2566bd4104c5282d7f48f31d626f37e341f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 401.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 393.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 204.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 179.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 143.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 110.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 98.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 97.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 89.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 88.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 80.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 67.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 58.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 52.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 77c | 44.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 24c | 42.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 28c | 41.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 36.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 36.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 36.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 79c | 33.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 352 | 76.4%269 W · 83 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 31.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.