Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813ff452f24cd0b6b00b751861244d9a6b4a92ee6ac53c5151f990eaf26b4f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Hawkeyesof Michigan Wolverines, Iowa Hawkeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 1,455$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.56 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…03a9backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 54c | 432.54$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 312.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 46c | 274.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…8c3abacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 198.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 51c | 156.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 150.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 57c | 70.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 57c | 52.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 55c | 49.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 57c | 43.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Michigan Wolverines | 32c | 38.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 35.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 24.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 56c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa HawkeyesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 145.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)Iowa Hawkeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.