Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebfb94d4e26be5583337ec2212d52f7fde94ed5e58312f336af53f332bdeecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Hawkeyesof Michigan Wolverines, Iowa Hawkeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,516 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 7,455$3,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,951.13 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 4,453$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.31 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 2,282$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.76 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 2,226$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.82 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 55c | 2,135$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.52 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.15 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,370$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.17 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 1,082$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.97 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 991.25$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 935.97$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.06 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 807.89$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.18 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 661.07$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.98 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 608.34$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 603.87$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.05 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 48c | 520.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.69 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 53c | 467.59$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 456.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.62 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 48c | 435$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.51 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 307.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 303.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 298.37$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 295.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 224.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 55c | 205.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 203.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 191.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 39c | 150.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 142.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 43c | 120.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 48c | 101.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 100.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 48c | 91.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c96…340fbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 53c | 65.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 48c | 64.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 59.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 56c | 58.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 59c | 57.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 56.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 54.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 48.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 41.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 37.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 47c | 31.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 49c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Iowa Hawkeyes | 52c | 19.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa HawkeyesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 145.5Under won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)Iowa Hawkeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.