Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 145.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f4240f683393bef4c95cf3c081be7da326125bf02b5091c89f62f42cc79de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,120 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,147$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.45 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.31 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Under | 47c | 1,662$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.85 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 1,032$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.7 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 52c | 999.92$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 46c | 908.85$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.78 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 336.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.76 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 309.77$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Under | 48c | 309.77$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 234$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 210.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Over | 53c | 188.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Under | 48c | 136.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 113.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 47c | 103.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 102.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 59c | 94.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 54c | 87.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 48c | 78.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 48c | 62.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Under | 48c | 55.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 48c | 50.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Under | 47c | 45.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 25c | 44.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 43.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…595fbacked Under | 48c | 35.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 33.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Under | 48c | 32.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 55c | 32.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Under | 47c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…4e04backed Under | 48c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 145.5this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa HawkeyesMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)Iowa Hawkeyes won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)Iowa Hawkeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.