MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815242e25ad2ce8d271200e5b534c4202963f82ccb77babc818a68c440f5d0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 2,053$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 41c | 771.72$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.73 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 602.05$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.05 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 523.61$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.94 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 358.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 46c | 261.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 59c | 252.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 42c | 192.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 173.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 51c | 165.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 42c | 133.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 51c | 112.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 60.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 53c | 60.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 59.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 53c | 56.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 60c | 52.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 51c | 47.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 46.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 45.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 41.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 58c | 37.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 35.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 28.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 61c | 26.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 40c | 25.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 59c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.