MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d623245165e2d7a86fa79c86a93f634d1f81fffd115db6b352fe86e4502fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Athletics, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 1,272$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.41 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 1,190$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.65 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Athletics | 43c | 1,114$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.01 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Athletics | 43c | 673.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 42c | 638.51$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 612.82$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 455.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.2 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 447.41$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Athletics | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Athletics | 43c | 289.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Athletics | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Athletics | 43c | 198.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 12c | 149.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Athletics | 36c | 142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Athletics | 43c | 135.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics | 39c | 128.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Athletics | 43c | 115.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Athletics | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Athletics | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Athletics | 43c | 89.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 83.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Athletics | 39c | 72.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 53.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Athletics | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.