TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Chicago White Sox41c69,787$28,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,174.2931149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Athletics59c48,380$28,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,544.111560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Chicago White Sox41c15,123$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,922.6731039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Athletics59c9,950$5,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,870.2811952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics59c9,567$5,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.741,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox54c9,271$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,279.2710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Athletics59c8,926$5,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.791,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Athletics59c6,620$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.4437953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Athletics59c5,648$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.2638148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked Chicago White Sox46c5,364$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.6726056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics59c4,423$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.861,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Athletics6c3,839$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.261,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics14c3,250$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.522,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Athletics7c3,210$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7216814.3%24 W · 144 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Athletics59c3,081$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.9613254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Chicago White Sox42c2,758$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.4719250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1adb…2798backed Chicago White Sox52c2,677$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Athletics59c2,439$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.7224651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics11c2,426$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics58c2,186$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.735,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics29c2,153$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.669,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Chicago White Sox41c2,039$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.871,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Chicago White Sox41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18027451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Chicago White Sox41c1,881$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.771,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Chicago White Sox41c1,743$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.981,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Athletics27c1,420$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.4660941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics59c1,375$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.973,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Athletics7c1,356$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Athletics51c1,087$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.412245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Chicago White Sox40c996.07$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.6410842.6%46 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Athletics59c991.93$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.2432350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics5c956.22$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.091,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Chicago White Sox64c920.88$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.2355464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Athletics7c860.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.981,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Athletics7c856.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1733228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Chicago White Sox41c819.99$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.991,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Chicago White Sox57c806.42$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.5248850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Chicago White Sox77c768.47$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Athletics59c679.85$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1146749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics34c646.8$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.66,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Athletics34c643.64$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6214235.9%51 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f6…7ce9backed Athletics9c632.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610634.9%37 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Athletics59c617.43$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.2828347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Chicago White Sox41c573.91$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.6128244.7%126 W · 156 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Chicago White Sox41c559.94$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3628347.7%135 W · 148 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a6…eeb0backed Chicago White Sox60c544.48$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.794951%25 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Athletics6c522.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.782924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago White Sox41c505.9$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.4870735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox41c500.12$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.126,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Athletics59c492.58$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6226255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Chicago White Sox41c470.72$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.7372648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Athletics59c463.32$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3618553%98 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics58c420.17$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.71,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox68c397.82$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.455,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Athletics57c391.76$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.063342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Chicago White Sox41c390$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.81,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Athletics6c386.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.596434.4%22 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Athletics24c380.73$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.134042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32de…ce27backed Chicago White Sox41c380$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22363644.7%284 W · 352 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Chicago White Sox41c360$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.41,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Chicago White Sox43c328.37$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2329141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Athletics60c325.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.232850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Chicago White Sox44c321.75$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1252955.6%294 W · 235 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Athletics59c310.18$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18320351.7%105 W · 98 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…7adebacked Athletics59c310.18$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18311448.2%55 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Chicago White Sox41c304.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9544643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Chicago White Sox41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17724346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox41c299.87$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.362,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Chicago White Sox50c297.87$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6865651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics44c282.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.071,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Athletics43c281.61$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8522848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Chicago White Sox41c270$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.41,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Athletics58c269.7$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2620647.1%97 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Athletics57c268.31$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9454048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Athletics15c265.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9312337.4%46 W · 77 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics6c249.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.054,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Athletics59c248.73$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7526751.7%138 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Athletics59c247.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3117151.5%88 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Athletics59c247.75$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1721057.6%121 W · 89 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Chicago White Sox41c240$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.51,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Chicago White Sox42c237.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7140645.1%183 W · 223 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox59c236$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3165050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8200…8444backed Athletics22c223$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.064820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Athletics59c217.51$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3340648.5%197 W · 209 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb5…b009backed Athletics60c195.2$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.126445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55af…6a1bbacked Chicago White Sox43c193.16$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.136345.7%166 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Chicago White Sox42c193.04$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.963,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc4…4730backed Athletics52c186.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Athletics9c184.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9126315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Athletics10c181.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6651555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70cb…f527backed Chicago White Sox42c179.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.121291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.39per pick52cpaid+77.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xadf3…101fbacked Chicago White Sox41c178.26$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1733241.3%137 W · 195 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox57c176.83$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.336,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Athletics59c165.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.546256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Athletics59c156.06$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0845151.2%231 W · 220 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox75c153.26$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.618,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Athletics60c151.28$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.778953.9%48 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b1…abb1backed Athletics20c150.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca34…967dbacked Athletics59c146.31$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked Athletics59c146.31$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3217954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.