NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815d3ff520d3c1bb7da20b59e30ebb26d2e4a8a5a080a06d627cccc8f2f1d276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 48c | 1,175$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.82 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 865.37$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 475$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 51c | 420.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 383$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 51c | 320.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.39 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 318.59$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…340bbacked Under | 49c | 206.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…8057backed Over | 49c | 205.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…a201backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Over | 49c | 201$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9854…7622backed Under | 52c | 197.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 51c | 193.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 53c | 192.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa330…3dd0backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…ab6ebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 52c | 177.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 131.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 52c | 121.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 50c | 119$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 102.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 54c | 99.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 48c | 80.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 79.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 51c | 73.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 65.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 38.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 46c | 37.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 35.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…41cabacked Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…e354backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 164 | 54.9%90 W · 74 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 197 | 59.4%117 W · 80 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 49c | 25.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…ee00backed Over | 48c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…ef82backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf008…bfb5backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b1…e623backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d9…b58abacked Under | 52c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…8ffbbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. Blue JacketsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.