NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f8bff173c61b500258902e7e856d9ebe2471a365893a60763371c1e3d57216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Capitals, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55f0…4e2cbacked Capitals | 29c | 494.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…01bfbacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 436.7$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 386.7$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Capitals | 27c | 324.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Blue Jackets | 58c | 229.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Blue Jackets | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Capitals | 27c | 158.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Capitals | 16c | 137.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Blue Jackets | 73c | 121.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 113.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Blue Jackets | 38c | 106.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Blue Jackets | 38c | 98.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Capitals | 43c | 89.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Capitals | 19c | 61.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Capitals | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Blue Jackets | 73c | 48.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Capitals | 62c | 46.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Blue Jackets | 74c | 46.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Capitals | 46c | 31.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Capitals | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked Blue Jackets | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jackets | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…e385backed Blue Jackets | 73c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…b370backed Blue Jackets | 73c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. Blue JacketsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.