NHL · resolved market
Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe691c734e1ac262ac74569674b9be5ab333aa789f6e8950e6e606e404ee30a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Blue Jackets, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Capitals | 68c | 1,052$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.45 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Capitals | 66c | 890.62$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Blue Jackets | 32c | 720.36$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Blue Jackets | 34c | 638.92$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.24 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Blue Jackets | 32c | 556.76$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Capitals | 70c | 538$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…7816backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 456.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Capitals | 71c | 274.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Blue Jackets | 30c | 239.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed Blue Jackets | 36c | 173.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Blue Jackets | 34c | 163.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 64c | 125.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Blue Jackets | 30c | 120.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Capitals | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Capitals | 67c | 99.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Blue Jackets | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Capitals | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Capitals | 66c | 73.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Blue Jackets | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 69c | 62.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Blue Jackets | 34c | 61.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Capitals | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Capitals | 67c | 58.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 57.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Capitals | 70c | 55.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Blue Jackets | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Capitals | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Capitals | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Capitals | 56c | 40.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…0d82backed Blue Jackets | 32c | 38.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Capitals | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…173fbacked Blue Jackets | 32c | 35.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Blue Jackets | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 67c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Capitals | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Capitals | 47c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Blue Jackets | 53c | 27.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Capitals | 69c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. Blue JacketsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.