Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8169dc3b19e7ea0dd4ab7c702fe63dae48b6aef046391b63d5b0210e38d03d1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 999.97$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.98 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked G2 Esports | 40c | 615.29$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.18 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed G2 Esports | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked G2 Esports | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 476.19$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.19 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked G2 Esports | 43c | 389.03$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.03 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 362.07$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.62 | 579 | 45.9%266 W · 313 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 338.79$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports | 44c | 276.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed G2 Esports | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked G2 Esports | 32c | 212$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 203 | 48.8%99 W · 104 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 208.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed G2 Esports | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…b7c4backed G2 Esports | 37c | 139.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked G2 Esports | 42c | 95.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed G2 Esports | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 394 | 50.3%198 W · 196 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 88.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 86.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed G2 Esports | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 950 | 48.5%461 W · 489 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed G2 Esports | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 81.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed G2 Esports | 42c | 71.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed G2 Esports | 71c | 60.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed G2 Esports | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 39.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…9832backed G2 Esports | 44c | 38.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked G2 Esports | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 347 | 43.5%151 W · 196 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.