TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e5e…7315backed Natus Vincere34c17,516$5,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,980.2612840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed G2 Esports67c16,579$11,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,477.531,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Natus Vincere34c15,500$5,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,269.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Natus Vincere13c13,948$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.2525143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Natus Vincere32c11,111$3,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,555.515131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked G2 Esports65c10,442$6,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.4414549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked G2 Esports70c9,857$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,957.142250%11 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere21c9,408$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.433,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked G2 Esports65c6,489$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.0170456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed G2 Esports65c6,030$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.6582352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Natus Vincere30c6,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9849541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed G2 Esports66c5,800$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,97259450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f9…26f8backed Natus Vincere35c5,074$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.941650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere29c4,783$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.51,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a0…56c7backed Natus Vincere14c4,740$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.322236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Natus Vincere30c4,446$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.8630945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed G2 Esports67c4,343$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.197958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed Natus Vincere33c4,050$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.512236.9%45 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0b…f682backed Natus Vincere16c3,900$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked G2 Esports69c3,843$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.841,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G2 Esports67c3,821$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.6443442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked G2 Esports79c3,649$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.6412664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere27c3,500$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere30c3,274$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.115046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Natus Vincere35c3,129$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.8420036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere13c3,026$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.221,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked G2 Esports66c3,025$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.52356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed G2 Esports79c2,933$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61467931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked G2 Esports67c2,813$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.1721754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed G2 Esports68c2,800$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.9918467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed G2 Esports69c2,500$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.991,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed G2 Esports66c2,272$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.481,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Natus Vincere14c2,144$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.112236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports69c2,121$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.511,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Natus Vincere34c2,039$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.812748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked G2 Esports68c1,895$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.4647453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed G2 Esports69c1,700$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52230151.5%155 W · 146 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc899…e1fdbacked Natus Vincere31c1,648$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed Natus Vincere30c1,601$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.299234.8%32 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Natus Vincere35c1,586$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55510243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7581…7ba9backed G2 Esports70c1,504$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.29875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed G2 Esports69c1,474$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.935455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Natus Vincere35c1,436$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.68143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05df…e268backed Natus Vincere35c1,394$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4323241.4%96 W · 136 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed G2 Esports71c1,328$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.381,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Natus Vincere38c1,315$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked G2 Esports64c1,272$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.11,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x141f…7711backed G2 Esports69c1,236$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1514248.6%69 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Natus Vincere37c1,187$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.0254529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Natus Vincere33c1,127$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.48253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ee…3b01backed Natus Vincere34c1,119$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.861747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked G2 Esports70c1,111$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.314352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere30c1,108$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.621,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere17c1,047$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.421,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Natus Vincere29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29038837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed G2 Esports70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Natus Vincere30c999.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9957945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Esports69c978.45$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.852,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked G2 Esports66c946$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.642055%11 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed G2 Esports70c907$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.120557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports66c900$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere23c892.59$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.121,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked G2 Esports70c857.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1428166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked G2 Esports66c832$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8812352%64 W · 59 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed G2 Esports67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2642,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Natus Vincere34c790.68$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.832951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere22c771.69$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.722,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked G2 Esports66c757$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.387160.6%43 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed Natus Vincere35c754.95$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2310231.4%32 W · 70 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked G2 Esports68c743.4$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.891,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fe…be09backed Natus Vincere36c740$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.48132.1%26 W · 55 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked G2 Esports68c739.98$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.798060%48 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b57…1f2ebacked Natus Vincere30c739.8$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39b6…43d6backed G2 Esports70c734$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.21957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Natus Vincere31c723.4$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9142941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked G2 Esports70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2950155.3%277 W · 224 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked G2 Esports71c704.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0452065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked G2 Esports67c686.53$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.834342%144 W · 199 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked G2 Esports66c685.99$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2418653.2%99 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed G2 Esports68c642.34$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.0786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb3…8689backed G2 Esports69c640.63$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.596361.9%39 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed G2 Esports64c630$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.81,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Natus Vincere36c616.67$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22226042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere50c605.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30043640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed G2 Esports67c599.99$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1991,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere16c595.29$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.731,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e3…761fbacked G2 Esports66c590$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.612260.7%74 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7004…b7c4backed Natus Vincere12c586.58$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.588160.5%49 W · 32 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere32c576.77$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.171,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked G2 Esports66c568$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.124755.3%26 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere35c553.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.771,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked G2 Esports66c531.85$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8584360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed G2 Esports71c514.08$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.0829240.8%119 W · 173 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Natus Vincere37c512.16$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.521440.2%86 W · 128 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3e…5d9dbacked G2 Esports66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17048042.3%203 W · 277 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Natus Vincere30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed Natus Vincere30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017633.5%59 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked G2 Esports67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16528253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked G2 Esports69c492.75$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7528150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…d737backed G2 Esports80c487.94$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.941266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.