Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Dayana Yastremska vs Gabriela Ruse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x818c3bc22e52f40ada0d60efe1b2f558c1fbb8bd75a5cd921618bc617a5debf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruseof Yastremska, Ruse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yastremska | 26c | 5,092$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.27 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Ruse | 54c | 4,964$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yastremska | 0c | 3,990$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Yastremska | 59c | 2,022$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.2 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yastremska | 25c | 1,204$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yastremska | 27c | 1,142$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yastremska | 11c | 830.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Ruse | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ruse | 69c | 737.68$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.48 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yastremska | 19c | 699.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yastremska | 44c | 624.27$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.41 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yastremska | 30c | 550$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…8e9dbacked Ruse | 44c | 453.4$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ruse | 71c | 373.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…3fbdbacked Yastremska | 39c | 305.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yastremska | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 296 | 49.7%147 W · 149 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yastremska | 56c | 260.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Ruse | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yastremska | 11c | 197$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yastremska | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Ruse | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Ruse | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Ruse | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yastremska | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yastremska | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yastremska | 53c | 89.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Yastremska | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yastremska | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yastremska | 55c | 46.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Ruse | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yastremska | 30c | 43.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yastremska | 56c | 40.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yastremska | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Ruse | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yastremska | 55c | 34.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ruse | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Ruse | 43c | 27.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yastremska | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Yastremska | 57c | 23.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Ruse | 45c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…c364backed Yastremska | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Dayana Yastremska vs Gabriela Rusethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs RuseRuse won
- Yastremska vs. Ruse: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.