UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81957879e42924940817c217c651689b724d4f164b7a377294bbf7931cb1e0b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 3,755$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.62 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 47c | 2,887$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.89 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.98 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 933.82$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.22 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 55c | 820.82$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.37 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Over | 53c | 771.97$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.83 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…55bbbacked Over | 53c | 716.47$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…b75dbacked Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 375.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Over | 53c | 333$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Over | 71c | 328.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 48c | 264.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 44c | 264.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 57c | 181.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 52c | 172.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 41c | 145$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 59c | 145$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 55c | 72.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 47c | 50.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…edb9backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)Sean Brady won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.