Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a2e29303ab94a58cc4cbb52cab5b4f44f9596a4680bfb5d17e824a4b14048e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 355.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 30c | 344.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 249.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 61c | 246.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 223.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 41c | 197.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 39c | 194.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 64c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 111.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed Yes | 59c | 102.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 98.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 98.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 38c | 96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 32c | 93.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 93.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 55c | 91.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 90.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 55c | 67.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 65.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 63.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 72c | 58.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 56.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 55.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 52.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…9693backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 26c | 48.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 47.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 44.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 56c | 39.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 39.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 38.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 30.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 29.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 44c | 26.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…05e4backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 77c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.