Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a9166db3310077d8476401a1d6b039ce4bac7b262d1cf37efe249bf09dd75d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bergsof Bergs, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ruud | 0c | 17,525$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bergs | 41c | 8,807$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,226.56 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Ruud | 74c | 5,505$4,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.48 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Ruud | 73c | 1,488$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bergs | 47c | 1,425$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ruud | 25c | 1,213$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Ruud | 59c | 1,152$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.1 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bergs | 37c | 928.3$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ruud | 48c | 831.6$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bergs | 25c | 801.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.36 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bergs | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Ruud | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bergs | 28c | 574.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.52 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…edbfbacked Ruud | 53c | 489.94$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bergs | 28c | 442.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.71 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Ruud | 47c | 429.01$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.63 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bergs | 28c | 350$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Bergs | 13c | 350$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Ruud | 53c | 347.79$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Ruud | 51c | 296.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Ruud | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Ruud | 75c | 215.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.42 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Bergs | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…7d36backed Ruud | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Ruud | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Ruud | 79c | 158.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Ruud | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ruud | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bergs | 63c | 125.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bergs | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bergs | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Ruud | 55c | 92.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bergs | 28c | 87.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Ruud | 71c | 85.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bergs | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ruud | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Ruud | 73c | 60.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Bergs | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bergs | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Ruud | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Bergs | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Ruud | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Ruud | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.