Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ac5be77cda37f1dd551c3d78bdd2098ac15f753c144b470ab37336a04624c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 7,275$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.07 | 1,888 | 36.5%690 W · 1,198 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 29c | 1,250$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.49 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,065$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.98 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 32c | 528$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 452.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,002 | 40.2%403 W · 599 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 15c | 331.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 718 | 43.5%312 W · 406 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 70c | 214.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 805 | 49.9%402 W · 403 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 30c | 137.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 532 | 24.1%128 W · 404 L | -24.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,271 | 45.4%577 W · 694 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…bd81backed Over | 35c | 52.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 308 | 35.1%108 W · 200 L | -32.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 79c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 926 | 46.7%432 W · 494 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Over | 35c | 28.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015a…bf68backed Under | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.