Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805055efb7de3affbdcae95106c814d6dc68340bc10ce8f22c4755096fa0d7c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 1,158$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 743.64$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 72c | 406.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 26c | 380.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 73c | 374.32$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 71c | 352$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 68c | 319.49$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 66c | 301.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 30c | 276$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Over | 70c | 227$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 35c | 221.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 70c | 217.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 31c | 202$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 69c | 196.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 77c | 189.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 21c | 166$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 72c | 162.93$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…1e77backed Over | 71c | 141.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 32c | 139.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 44c | 113.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 30c | 93.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Over | 79c | 68.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Over | 50c | 68.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 70c | 63.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 29c | 49.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 79c | 46.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 77c | 36.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 30c | 35.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 80c | 30.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 70c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…2211backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Orlando City SC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.