TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Orlando City SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,045 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ad7…42aabacked Under52c134,307$70,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,161.971353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over48c20,249$9,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,738.831,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c15,776$7,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,524.273,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Over47c14,255$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over48c10,500$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04026345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Over47c8,223$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.861330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over47c7,445$3,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.4671443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over47c6,930$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.6435550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over48c5,243$2,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.836250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45017740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dc…21b9backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712e…0485backed Over50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c3,033$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.111,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c2,868$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.174348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over48c2,500$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1954751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4939…9adebacked Over47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9408946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96017258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over49c1,793$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.1199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Over48c1,568$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.649457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Over46c1,475$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.74245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under54c1,287$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.8839435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over48c1,188$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.066349.2%31 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8220…b081backed Under48c832.56$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over48c747$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5155750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over48c747$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5168550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over48c747$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5191553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under47c741.51$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3931957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over49c738$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.3620043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2983…4eb2backed Under46c653.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over48c641.17$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.791,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over47c639.25$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2253040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28815858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over48c500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24270249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over48c500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24272850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over48c487$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8318456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under48c471.88$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.141,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over52c434.42$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7536646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under38c405.69$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.2148344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19214359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over55c386.45$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.151,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over47c372$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8413948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Over48c302$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.710257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over48c301.49$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0931446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Over48c291.25$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.517256.9%41 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over47c271$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.681,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under48c239.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.536339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under49c229.9$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1280249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over49c229.8$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.698945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over50c215.09$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5673438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012751.2%65 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…5b51backed Under54c204.93$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.474850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9615060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9413158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under52c197$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5620133.3%67 W · 134 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545b…7e82backed Under51c196.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.271136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over47c196.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0214957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Over48c180.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.443435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over35c167.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7444447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf90…fa11backed Under53c167.19$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under45c163.49$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0413464.9%87 W · 47 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Over49c163.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012146.3%56 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over65c160.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4620554.6%112 W · 93 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Over48c160$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.596163.9%39 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over48c157.2$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5816948.5%82 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Over48c156$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.889058.9%53 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over49c155$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.435149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Over48c152.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Over61c147.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over48c138$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2452923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Over60c135.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0417244.8%77 W · 95 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under46c130.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.23161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Under54c124.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Over49c122.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over65c115.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3429460.5%178 W · 116 L+36.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over29c112.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3327058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3824…e756backed Under44c110.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.183444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over62c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over65c109$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0531158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under50c108$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5468150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Over48c107.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.825050%25 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over49c102.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd74…bedabacked Over18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182524%6 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Over48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Over48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over47c99.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9917751.4%91 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Over49c98.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.166558.5%38 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Over48c97.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under57c91.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4746156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Over47c84.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.997339.7%29 W · 44 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Over49c78.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2212848.4%62 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee0…4078backed Under78c76.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92580%4 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick79cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2285…2aeabacked Over75c72.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under51c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3627047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.