Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81bab63cba4f5d7306131218b0451ce903fe91361ec89d2eacb3778a3fc04be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Hernando Escurra, Hernan Casanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Hernando Escurra | 11c | 9,112$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hernando Escurra | 22c | 2,010$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.4 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Hernando Escurra | 16c | 1,836$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hernando Escurra | 6c | 1,327$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hernando Escurra | 17c | 1,010$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Hernando Escurra | 22c | 1,005$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Hernando Escurra | 25c | 907.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Hernando Escurra | 8c | 737.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Hernando Escurra | 20c | 731$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Hernando Escurra | 21c | 693.88$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Hernando Escurra | 17c | 571.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 220 | 20%44 W · 176 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Hernando Escurra | 15c | 541.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…04aabacked Hernando Escurra | 13c | 537.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 261 | 34.1%89 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hernando Escurra | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…08bfbacked Hernando Escurra | 7c | 397.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Hernando Escurra | 5c | 244$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Hernando Escurra | 10c | 242.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Hernando Escurra | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…9b93backed Hernando Escurra | 10c | 131.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Hernando Escurra | 13c | 105.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Hernando Escurra | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed Hernando Escurra | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hernando Escurra | 15c | 86.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Hernando Escurra | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Hernando Escurra | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Hernan Casanova | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.