Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81e80b59d6634daa8e1f5a99852278996383345c1bc7bfe7898dc5f58f14be6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 1,761$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.83 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd6…e33abacked Yes | 30c | 1,597$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 1,561$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.35 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 58c | 1,537$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.76 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 630.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…703bbacked Yes | 16c | 593.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Yes | 43c | 447.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 16c | 446.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 357.75$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Yes | 20c | 333.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 16c | 237.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked No | 74c | 229.76$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 72c | 198.53$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 143.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Yes | 57c | 136.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 117.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Yes | 26c | 102.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 99.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 99.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed No | 75c | 94.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 91.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…abc5backed Yes | 22c | 82.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Yes | 16c | 79.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 27c | 67.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 27c | 64.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 63.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 27c | 53.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 29c | 48.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 23c | 45.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 26c | 44.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 43.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 42.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 60c | 22.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed No | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked No | 78c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-10?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.