TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes27c14,137$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,321.4216045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes27c9,171$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,650.0710641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c8,970$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.262,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes37c4,714$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.841,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes61c3,095$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.6348141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No33c2,130$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.811,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8c…dc9ebacked No73c2,059$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Yes37c1,846$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.257349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yes37c1,839$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.2618644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8339…caa9backed Yes68c1,818$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No73c1,679$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.5820548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No71c1,654$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.283,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No33c1,564$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.5840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes24c1,437$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.1920845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yes24c1,423$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.3621355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yes24c1,345$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.2211148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed No57c1,272$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.294360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes49c1,168$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked No72c1,092$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.566149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No72c1,091$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.418547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes24c1,059$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.1314652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed No77c729.18$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.816752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked No72c682.78$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.66147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked No72c682.78$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.618958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked No72c682.68$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.617852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No73c673.84$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.917749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd932…4164backed No21c664.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50dc…b61abacked Yes45c642.61$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No55c605.37$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5214055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes25c540.49$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.372832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No22c456.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked No78c414.46$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.28650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked No72c405.02$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes76c299.57$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.93873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Yes29c297.12$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.962532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No73c295.14$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.022231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes28c294.02$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.695425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No71c272.49$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3338646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No38c223.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6639857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Yes32c210.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.46550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes65c195.8$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.531752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94c…ba65backed Yes13c193.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.682321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+118.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54e1…9de8backed Yes75c183.87$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.972040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f4…c90bbacked Yes75c171.62$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.72366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbae…d450backed No24c169.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed No72c168.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.052259.1%13 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick75cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed No28c156.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c23…261ebacked No72c154.1$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.61353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No62c143$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0622245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No26c142.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4424541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes69c138.55$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed No73c134.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3818554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed No73c134.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.388251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Yes45c130.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.253562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No71c129.52$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.171,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Yes24c125.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.076758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes27c125$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2515747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Yes80c123.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No39c117.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8222221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Yes80c109.43$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.89785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Yes24c109.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.821020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes65c107.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.69850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked No11c106.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.547834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Yes23c99.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.641533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…0303backed Yes56c97.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.772245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No29c94.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3727554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Yes56c94.22$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.755255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…99dabacked No28c84.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes54c74.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.775756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No25c73.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2728822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked No70c70.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.14261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Yes28c68.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.212045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked No73c67.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.197749.4%38 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes75c64.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3511356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed No75c61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.884165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes65c60.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.092050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Yes29c60.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b64…72eabacked Yes24c59.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.331241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f1…e20dbacked No37c59.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked No72c58.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.115048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed No72c58.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.112346.3%57 W · 66 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd044…7f47backed Yes23c57.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes27c52.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked No64c50.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.197450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Yes28c48.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.92339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…30cfbacked No72c45.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.05955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd41…5afebacked Yes29c42.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No72c42.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.755364.2%34 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed No45c39.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.84825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No70c39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No70c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes60c32.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.013265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked No36c31.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.392245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe592…691abacked Yes79c31.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30db…a9abbacked Yes66c30.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Yes62c29.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa93…a0c9backed Yes68c28.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.151369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd10…32e8backed Yes72c27.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed No73c23.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed No73c23.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.834753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.