Europa Conference League · resolved market
Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8216ef65a0464c84ccf492f7a7160c8eed6ff114a6a79a78e10705c39fa4bb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 65c | 383.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 65c | 306.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Over | 33c | 218.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 37c | 164.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…3d80backed Over | 33c | 145$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 40c | 113$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 38c | 46.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Under | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Under | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Under | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 40c | 30.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Under | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Under | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 69cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5this page
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.