Europa Conference League · resolved market
Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc56a2bab99669450af9df0adcabca1e45169d30321d8a8a8f254a22d02d6736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 1,623$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.47 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 1,045$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 61c | 819.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 61c | 244.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 27c | 150.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…953bbacked Over | 73c | 150.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Over | 21c | 108$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 19c | 102$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 78c | 81.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Over | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 72.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 78c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Under | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 73c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Under | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Under | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Under | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5this page
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Over won
- Celtic FC vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.