Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8249fefe5e3289208bc91fc02db06cb6a0e483e2ecb4886600c24b3e8b5d1bfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 2,129$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.54 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,095$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.49 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,071$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Over | 73c | 938.37$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.01 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 919.93$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.16 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 52c | 812.13$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.86 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 74c | 676.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 69c | 607.89$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.25 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Under | 26c | 605.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 386.4$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 359.12$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Over | 66c | 152.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 27c | 119.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 28c | 109$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 72c | 109$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 93.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 28c | 91.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 83.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 27c | 78.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 72.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 67.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 28c | 65.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 27c | 59.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 28c | 58.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 28c | 57.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 56.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 27c | 55.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 50.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 60c | 49.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Under | 27c | 49.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 67c | 48.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 27c | 39.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 27c | 39.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 71c | 25.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2588backed Over | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 73c | 16.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 73c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…5a25backed Over | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e5…ba5fbacked Over | 74c | 13.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 67cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.