College Football · resolved market
Spread: Virginia (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825dc6f434b4e982baf41c89ce6f0590e72930374b9cb0f3dfd0638b5b8bb595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolinaof Virginia, North Carolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Virginia | 52c | 56,538$29,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,509 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed North Carolina | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,799.98 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed North Carolina | 51c | 10,792$5,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed North Carolina | 47c | 10,351$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,455.59 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Virginia | 49c | 9,563$4,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,685.81 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Virginia | 52c | 6,877$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.3 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Virginia | 50c | 5,962$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.18 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina | 47c | 5,840$2,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.46 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed North Carolina | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Virginia | 53c | 1,889$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Virginia | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked North Carolina | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed North Carolina | 46c | 1,367$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.18 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked North Carolina | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked North Carolina | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.45 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked North Carolina | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed North Carolina | 43c | 711$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked North Carolina | 48c | 601.31$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.74 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed North Carolina | 48c | 457.75$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.03 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Virginia | 52c | 447.75$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked North Carolina | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed North Carolina | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed North Carolina | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed North Carolina | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Virginia | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed Virginia | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Virginia | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…a43cbacked Virginia | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Virginia | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Virginia | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Virginia | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…79efbacked Virginia | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked North Carolina | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed North Carolina | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked North Carolina | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…70d8backed Virginia | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Virginia | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…698bbacked Virginia | 52c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia (-10.5)this page
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Virginia vs. North CarolinaVirginia won
- Virginia vs. North Carolina: O/U 51.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.