Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826b1a6f16db1f9b9c81d7699a142f760c6690c54955d36f1f2963cf5869fed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 0c | 27,789$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 2c | 938.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 826.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 600.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 547.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 530.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 4c | 484.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 7c | 394.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 3c | 341.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 318.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 314.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 26c | 296.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…579cbacked Yes | 13c | 212.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…ca88backed Yes | 7c | 159.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 132.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 124.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 100.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…e1b6backed Yes | 11c | 94.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 82.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 77.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…fca8backed Yes | 23c | 75.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…1cbcbacked Yes | 20c | 59.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 70c | 49.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 36.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 72c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.