Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605a939815f1b92b76757a86256d0e06286c0c012e58a5da75b96222684fa2a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba6b…394ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,417$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 8c | 721.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 614.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 532.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 21c | 525.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…6631backed Yes | 4c | 502.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 427.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 350.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 286.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 283.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 38c | 269.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 215.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 205.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 201.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 49c | 197.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 195.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 192.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 155.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 17c | 149.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 23c | 127.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 122.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 105.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…9a91backed Yes | 25c | 88.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 86.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 84.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed Yes | 13c | 82.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 14c | 81.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…f488backed Yes | 18c | 79.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 71.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 68.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 17c | 66.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…fca8backed Yes | 21c | 65.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 65.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 21c | 60.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 54.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 42c | 47.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 45.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 73c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 78c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 72c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.