Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539fbd3a8fb806d4aa19df6e87ce814d6449f2d2224c302d0231a47edfb1a835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 642.8$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 389.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 5c | 366.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 24c | 317.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 304.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 259.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 180.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…394ebacked Yes | 31c | 175.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…c9e4backed Yes | 33c | 172.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 56c | 155.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 120.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 116.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 109.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 101.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 99.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 53c | 75.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…3767backed No | 53c | 67.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 66.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 61.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 71c | 60.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 58.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 54c | 52.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…9e4abacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 47c | 46.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 63c | 45.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 48c | 43.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 69c | 42.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 40.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 39.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 70c | 37.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 80c | 30.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…bb53backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 49c | 29.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…fca8backed No | 66c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…ddcebacked No | 51c | 25.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed No | 75c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…3a39backed No | 80c | 23.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 56c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…8dfbbacked No | 80c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.