TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0198…133bbacked No4c809.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.418452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c596.05$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No14c548.62$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1372222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed Yes29c483.57$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.236355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No9c465.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3966944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No54c460.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c340.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c315.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.021,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6b…394ebacked Yes68c281.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No67c266.06$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.299462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No78c211.44$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2911874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b11…ce49backed Yes31c189.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.468113.6%11 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No63c180.18$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.28160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes55c175.08$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes22c149.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes25c146.62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.821,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c131.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.865627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes13c130.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.921,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c124$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.241,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No79c117.56$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.761,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c115.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.144,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes21c100.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.17659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c100.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9956118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked No76c94.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.191346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No70c90.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.062,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes33c83.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2324921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No69c83.25$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3663656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c80.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c74.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.971,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes19c73.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6131029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e0…6087backed Yes79c68.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621687.5%14 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe91d…fca8backed Yes38c66.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c65.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c62.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.813,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes24c60.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes18c59.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c56.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.612,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes20c55.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes36c52.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7964460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes36c51.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.779852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No73c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.251,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.511041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes25c49.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4810728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes25c47.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7468521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes34c41.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3655538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No35c41.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47a…3b59backed Yes27c39.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No37c37.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes34c32.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.716935.5%60 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed No63c32.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.255145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No46c32.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7322344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c31.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No62c30.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0913059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaa0…6ca0backed Yes70c30.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No58c30.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.487361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c28.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No76c27.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No78c26.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf2…442bbacked No77c26.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.132161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No52c26.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5137570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No74c24.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.021,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed No72c23.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No61c21.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2576371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes67c21.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.111,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f77…6631backed No76c19.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No77c19.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.659779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No78c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed No59c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.034856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No71c16.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9940777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No78c16.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.557771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No72c16.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.649176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No77c15.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3126566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No78c15.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.743580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.317066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5944…a957backed No78c14.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.443976.9%30 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.