Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827eeea19fbe4d73145f1364d5104ec0d03df2de1f0ffc65ecf0c88cb5e448bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 9,993$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,948.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 6,871$4,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.77 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 72c | 3,258$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 71c | 2,682$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 2,058$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.4 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 29c | 1,261$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 36c | 1,188$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.05 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 995.37$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.96 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 705$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 19c | 498.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.06 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 61c | 435.37$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.02 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 70c | 364$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 66c | 357$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 26c | 354.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…457bbacked No | 69c | 336.32$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 74c | 303$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 46c | 296.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 259.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.27 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 64c | 233$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 73c | 231.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 230.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.96 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 74c | 229.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 47c | 204.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 63c | 172.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 62c | 169.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 30c | 164.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Yes | 63c | 157.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 140.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 103.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 28c | 95.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 71c | 87.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 20c | 77.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…4e69backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 40c | 74.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 73.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 20c | 71.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 61c | 65.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…b482backed Yes | 29c | 60.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 59.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 63c | 55.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 76c | 54.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 39c | 49.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 40.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 40.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 33.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 63c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6a…8be9backed Yes | 55c | 23.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.