Serie A · resolved market
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x828a9be14b92b42dedd66aa680cbf79165920c5fa4495ec4ea8d73f9bb768a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 3c | 13,683$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.19 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 7c | 10,415$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.5 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 4c | 6,280$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 18c | 3,951$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.1 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 1,850$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.76 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 13c | 1,578$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 20c | 1,333$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 1,175$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 707.99$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Yes | 20c | 661.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Yes | 4c | 604.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Yes | 12c | 367$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Yes | 7c | 331.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 80c | 280.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 265.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 18c | 230.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 5c | 228.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 202.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 12c | 179.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 19c | 161.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…e478backed Yes | 18c | 157.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 19c | 126.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 20c | 114.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce end in a draw?No won
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.