Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb353f301637618cf54e71454cccaeb9573661f779177c44fef5964a413367eac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 9,277$7,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.6 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 15c | 5,694$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…e4b7backed Yes | 29c | 2,126$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 1,525$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.85 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…c7f0backed Yes | 16c | 686.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 71c | 402.71$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 331.18$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 116 | 67.2%78 W · 38 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 325.38$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 319.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…cc75backed No | 72c | 308.62$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 16c | 303.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 29c | 303.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 227.82$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 16c | 151.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 227 | 43.2%98 W · 129 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 137.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 72c | 136.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…00aabacked Yes | 11c | 118.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed No | 71c | 102.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 30c | 98.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 96.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked No | 72c | 95.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 16c | 94.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked No | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 28c | 80.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes | 18c | 77.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…8f98backed Yes | 16c | 77.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 29c | 59.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked Yes | 27c | 54.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 29c | 42.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 30.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 72c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…05eabacked No | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed No | 73c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.