South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x828cb1310d45ceaa7a935e87b093997da6178d28a54d50435a22f8beff2c5846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 28c | 7,250$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.56 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 4,319$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.92 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 3,375$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 72c | 1,750$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 72c | 1,119$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.32 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 951.5$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 398.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 6c | 314.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 11c | 172.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 127.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked No | 67c | 125.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 42c | 112.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Yes | 28c | 106.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 98.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed No | 61c | 98.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 95.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 73c | 80.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 13c | 76.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 27c | 76.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 47c | 65.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 45c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed No | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 76c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 63c | 19.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.