Tennis · resolved market
Lexington: Ozan Baris vs Edas Butvilas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82a1d083fc4bb81f0806e62057b66f499cdfaa428cc5cfe4a34534ab6fbd0b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Edas Butvilasof Ozan Baris, Edas Butvilas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ozan Baris | 6c | 5,718$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…4c29backed Ozan Baris | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Ozan Baris | 5c | 969.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ozan Baris | 8c | 456.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ozan Baris | 6c | 449.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…2482backed Ozan Baris | 7c | 405.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Edas Butvilas | 58c | 250.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Ozan Baris | 44c | 239.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Ozan Baris | 6c | 182.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Edas Butvilas | 57c | 99.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Ozan Baris | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ozan Baris | 42c | 87.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Ozan Baris | 18c | 84.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Edas Butvilas | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Ozan Baris | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed Ozan Baris | 33c | 68.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Edas Butvilas | 71c | 61.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Ozan Baris | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…bdc6backed Edas Butvilas | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | -25.1wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Edas Butvilas | 53c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Edas Butvilas | 56c | 36.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Edas Butvilas | 54c | 36.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Ozan Baris | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Edas Butvilas | 71c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…178bbacked Edas Butvilas | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Edas Butvilas | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 343 | 59.5%204 W · 139 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.