Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82a792f18834c527613a298222887e4d81715ec3e743fd414f2d781f1a329528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morgan State Bearsof Morgan State Bears, Howard Bison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Howard Bison | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Morgan State Bears | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Morgan State Bears | 12c | 866.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.52 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Morgan State Bears | 9c | 583.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.26 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…479dbacked Morgan State Bears | 9c | 500.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Morgan State Bears | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Morgan State Bears | 6c | 499.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Morgan State Bears | 10c | 440.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.27 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Howard Bison | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 104 | 8.7%9 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Morgan State Bears | 15c | 282.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Morgan State Bears | 11c | 273.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.34 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Howard Bison | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 147 | 8.8%13 W · 134 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…f17dbacked Morgan State Bears | 7c | 230$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Howard Bison | 50c | 225.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Howard Bison | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Morgan State Bears | 12c | 168.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.76 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Morgan State Bears | 9c | 166.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Howard Bison | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Morgan State Bears | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Howard Bison | 23c | 99.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Morgan State Bears | 29c | 57.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…1e35backed Morgan State Bears | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Morgan State Bears | 64c | 21.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bisonthis page
- Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison: O/U 144.5Over won
- Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison: O/U 146.5Over won
- Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-14.5)Morgan State Bears won
- Spread: Howard Bison (-15.5)Morgan State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.