MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b0ce34e766a6c1fa4da4f28350da0a009fb1a3ab95a9ee7b94169fddef827d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 50c | 6,396$3,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.93 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 3,341$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.35 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 3,103$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.53 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 3,033$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.03 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,637$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.69 | 900 | 53.6%482 W · 418 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Under | 50c | 1,572$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.9 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 1,546$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.37 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 61c | 1,519$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 39c | 1,484$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.39 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 49c | 948.98$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 893.96$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 704.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 644.09$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.07 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 590.18$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 487.69$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 25c | 377$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 69c | 374.55$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 364.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 51c | 314.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 50c | 282.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 256.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 50c | 220.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 149.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 22c | 130.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 50c | 109.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 52c | 65.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 25c | 60.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Under | 52c | 57.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 26c | 56.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 49c | 50.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…af56backed Under | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Over | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 33.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Under | 52c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.