MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c68b778ffb1f3b0a1acd01d293033112d5af6c781d24f46829b2af23de1af92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 2,970$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.08 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 2,485$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.47 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.99 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 1,975$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.49 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 1c | 993.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 992.06$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.08 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 953$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 787.54$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 729.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.46 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 571.29$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.91 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 468$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 236.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.94 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 123.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 83.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 74.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 57.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 46.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 38.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 30.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 30.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 24.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.